By: Yolanda Hugg
@yolihugg
01/11/2012
In the NFC on Saturday, January 14th we have the New Orleans Saints vs. the San Francisco 49ers and on Sunday, January 15th we have the New York Giants vs. the Green Bay Packers. The winner of these two games will play for the 2012 NFC Championship. My picks to win are the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers, which will then be a rematch at the NFC Championship Game of this season’s opening game that was on Thursday, September 8, 2011 where the Packers beat the Saints (42-34).
So who will win this great rematch? Honestly, it’s not an easy pick. But if I had to choose, I would go with the New Orleans Saints. I know, you all are thinking that I am going with them because they are my team. I got ya! But the Saints are on fire! I am not anti-Packers at all. I am actually a big Matt Flynn fan (Packers’ back up QB that threw 6TD passes in their last game against the Detriot Lions on New Years Day). I am going with the Saints because they are rising at the right time, while the Packers are starting to look beatable.
If I had to pin point one thing that makes me confident that the New Orleans Saints will upset the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field is the Packers’ pass defense. They will have a very difficult time holding back Saints’ QB Drew Brees and his offensive monsters! Brees has TE Jimmy Graham who has the instinct of a rebounder and can snatch passes out of nowhere. He also has a lineup of wide receivers that can make big plays.
This will come down to whether or not the Green Bay Packers defense will be ready for this challenge. Regardless of who wins, this will be a rematch worth watching. But I will put my money on the Saints winning the NFC Championship and heading to the Super Bowl.
The first match did not go well at all for you all. And the score does not reflect on how the packers actually beat them it was worse. And the Saints do not play well on the west coast so this weekend is gonna be tougher than expected considering they did lose to seattle at seattle. After all that said I do want to see the rematch but i do expect the same outcome sorry.
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ReplyDeleteYes and check to see how many of those were played in there dome. we know they are great at home. But the same with the packers and the packers will have to have a bad game to lose at home.
ReplyDeleteUGH! oops! I didn't mean to delete my post....this is what I posted prior....I will look up those stats.
ReplyDeletePRIOR COMMENT "I understand your thoughts....The Saints and the Packers in that 1st game are not the same Saints and Packers we will see in the rematch. Whoever wins will not be a surprise....it can go either way....but I have a feeling that the Saints will pull it off.
In regards to the Seattle game, that was just a BAD DAY! FYI, the Saints I believe are (about) 12-4 in out of dome games in post season in the past 3 years. Pretty good odds.....I need to look up that stat....but I am pretty sure that's it. "
FYI my mistake for typing post season....that was a mistake. Here are the stats I was referring to.
ReplyDeleteSaints are 12-4 outdoors the last three seasons.
The Saints are 30-18 on the road in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era. 6-2, 4-4, 2-6, 7-1, 6-2 & 5-3.
But they are 3-2 this season outdoors and 2 of those games they won by 5 points or less.
ReplyDeleteThat's why I said it could go either way. I just have a feeling that the Saints are peaking and on a roll. It will be a good close game!
ReplyDeleteSan Fran play a brand of defense that relies on turnovers.... it the saints control the ball, and don't turn it over, the niners will look very ordinary and out-matched.... there is no doubt the saints will move the ball and generate yardage....
ReplyDeletethe key to this game, imo:
- can the niners generate drive killing turnovers and get good field position for its offense?
- can the niners get red-zone stops, forcing the saints to kick field goals instead of getting touchdowns.
If the niners can do the above, they will hang in there, cover and possibly win.... if not, the saints will win by outscoring the niners (that may be the most ludicrously obvious statement of the day)
Brees is no where near "absolute percision' when playing outdoors. Check out the 2011 outdoor games; @GB; @Jags where NO only scored three fg's in the 2nd half againt a rookie QB making his first start; @TB (loss); @CAR, where they were trailing with less than a minute to go; and @Tenn where they played against a rookie QB who had a chance to beat NO on the last play of the game.
ReplyDeleteSF def is way better than the aformentioned teams. Willis, Bowman, Grant, Gooden and Costanzo are stout at LB position and have covered NFL RB's and TE's with a lot of success in 2011. Sproles and company will likely run a couple of screens successfully, but the play action is not going to work as effectivley for NO as it has against other teams.
With the emergence of Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith in front seven, SF's secondary is also way better when compared to 2010 unit. Shante Spencer, who started in 2010, is now the fifth on the depth chart. That should give you an indication.
Well...I have a lot of thoughts on this game and a 9er fan.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I can say right off the bat is that there seems to be a lot more 49er love than I would have anticipated. The opening line of 3.5 leaves me shaking my head. I had New Orleans as a PK or -1 favorite. The fact that SF is not only getting 3, but oddsmakers are throwing in the hook just doesn't add up to me.
I keep reading, as I thought I might this week, about how much the Saints struggle on the road. The fact that is, that New Orleans owns the best road record in the NFL over the last three seasons, so this perpetuation that they struggle on the road is greatly overblown. It reminds me of the nonsense line of how hard it is to beat a team 3 times in the same season....which is actually converse to the facts.
There are a couple big keys to this game - The first key is 3rd down conversions. What concerns me as a SF fan is that the Niners are second to last in the NFL at converting on third down. The Saints are 5th best in stopping teams on third down. On the flip side, the saints are #1 in the NFL at converting on third down. Surprisingly the Niners are only 11th in this department.
A big key to SF slowing down the Saints high powered offense is stopping them on the 3rd and 3; 3rd and 2 types of situations. If you watched the Detroit game, that was a big reason why the Lions ended up getting blown out. They just couldn't get their defense off the field in those situations. The Niners need to be solid in this department on both sides of the ball or they will be in trouble. I think they do have a chance to be successful. Part of the reason the saints stop the opposition so well on third down is because they are usually up big and the opposition is playing from far behind, which puts them in 3rd and long spots as opposed to 3rd and short.
For the Niners to be successful in this department, they will need to run the ball effectively to make the third downs manageable. I believe they can do this, as they have all year. The problem is, they just haven't converted. I also think Alex Smith's ability to escape the pocket could be a huge advantage for the Niners if the Saints aren't prepared for him to run. This will be interesting to watch for sure. His scrambling ability goes unnoticed for sure.
Also, with 2 weeks to prepare for what is not a good defense in NO, Smith will hit big screen plays to Hunter who is the 9er version of Sproles...9ers will need to play lights out in the red-zone and hold NO to FGs. Another thing is that the 9er D must get off the field on 3rd and short, this is what killed the Lions which enabled the blowout. On the other side, the 9ers are not good at all on 3rd downs. I'm torn on picking a winner at this point, but I know who I want to see win.
ReplyDeleteThe outdoor argument isn't much I feel, b/c unless it's raining and cold there, it's still going to be a fast track.
ReplyDeleteGreat comments. I agree that Alex Smith will be a huge factor! I agree that the Niners D will be a challenge but I have faith that the Saints' O will put some numbers up early and then it will just be catch up. It will end close though!~
ReplyDeleteNow to only pray for a dry field!
It's going to be a good game! HAPPY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS SATURDAY! :)